The final two spots in the 64-team bracket will be on the line Wednesday night in Dayton, Ohio, as the second night of the First Four will solidify the matchups for the First Round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament. These are the games that get the appetite going for Thursday and Friday’s main course, where we will enjoy wall-to-wall March Madness action from midday into the deep evening hours.
Wednesday’s First Four games will begin with a battle of No. 16 seeds in the East Region as Patriot League champion American takes on MAAC champion Mount St. Mary’s. It’s a great opportunity for both teams to show out on a big stage and hopefully extend their NCAA Tournament stay, even if winning results in the “honor” of playing Duke on Friday afternoon in Raleigh, North Carolina.
Then, in the night cap, we will see two of the last teams into the field with No. 11 seed Texas and No. 11 seed Xavier going head-to-head in Midwest Region action. Both teams had ups and downs through the year that resulted in getting pushed to the edge of the field and having to play in the First Four — like the Longhorns’ 12 losses in conference play and Xavier having just one Quad 1 win. But now that the tournament has started, the slate has been wiped and it’s win-or-go-home every time the ball is tipped from here on out. A team has made it from the First Four to at least the Round of 32 in 12 of the 13 seasons since the play-in games were created, and either Xavier or Texas have the high-end ceiling to challenge No. 6 seed Illinois in the First Round on Friday in Milwaukee.
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2025 NCAA Tournament bracket predictions: Picks, scouting reports for all first-round games (and upsets, too)
Isaac Trotter
Let’s dive into these matchups with some Best Bets for Wednesday’s First four action.
Odds via SportsLine consensus | All times Eastern
(16) American vs. (16) Mount St. Mary’s
6:40 p.m. on TruTV | March Madness Live
It’s not exactly a family affair, but there is plenty of familiarity between these two programs as the schools are 62 miles apart and the basketball teams have squared off 70 times in total and 19 times since American made the move up to Division I in 1988-89. American has won four straight in the series (last loss in 2018) and leads the all-time series 37-33, but here in Dayton, the Eagles are running into the ticket-cashing machine that is the 2025 Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers. First-year coach Donny Lind has led Mount St. Mary’s to its most wins (22) in program history, and along the way the Mountaineers were routinely exceeding the oddsmakers expectations. Mount St. Mary’s went 22-10-1 against the spread on the season, including a 14-5-1 mark in road or neutral games and a 14-3 mark as a road underdog. The defense just held all three opponents under 60 points in the conference tournament while the rotation was losing players to injury left and right, but a next man up mentality put the Mount back in the First Four where the program has a 2-2 record. I like their chances to make that 3-2 but love getting a couple points in what should be a close, low-scoring game. Pick: Mount St. Mary’s +2.5
| Norlander | Palm | Patterson | Boone | Cobb | Salerno | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMER -2.5 | AMER | AMER | MOUNT | AMER | MOUNT | MOUNT |
| Straight up | AMER | AMER | MOUNT | AMER | MOUNT | MOUNT |
(11) Xavier vs. (11) Texas
9:10 p.m. on TruTV | March Madness Live
One of the reasons Texas was able to make the NCAA Tournament while having a 6-12 conference record is that in the Longhorns, at their best, can hang with and beat quality tournament teams. If you include the conference tournament, Texas has six wins against teams slotted as a single-digit seed in the field of 68 including two wins against Texas A&M and victories over Missouri and Kentucky. But the inconsistencies with Texas’ performances, both game-to-game and sometimes even from one half to another, have prevented the Longhorns from capitalizing on a roster that has size, athleticism and promising NBA Draft prospect with freshman Tre Johnson. Xavier, meanwhile, has been incredibly consistent since getting star forward Zach Freemantle back in the lineup, and the Musketeers play a crisp brand of basketball with pace and elite shooting. Ryan Conwell has been absolutely lights out recently, connecting of 24 of 41 3-pointers (58.5%) in his last five games. So if Xavier has to trade blows with Tre Johnson and Texas, it’s a team that certainly has the firepower to outlast the Longhorns in a shootout. Pick: Xavier -2.5
| Norlander | Palm | Patterson | Boone | Cobb | Salerno | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAVIER -2.5 | XAVIER | XAVIER | XAVIER | XAVIER | XAVIER | TEXAS |
| Straight up | XAVIER | XAVIER | XAVIER | XAVIER | XAVIER | TEXAS |
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