The Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio has hosted the Valero Texas Open since 2010, and it will serve as the host again this week. While the course stretches more than 7,400 yards, the tight layout emphasizes avoiding catastrophic mistakes that can knock golfers out of contention. It ranks inside the top-15 annually in scoring difficulty on the PGA Tour, but that has not stopped longshots from winning in recent years. Five of the last six winners have been 20-1 or longer in the Valero Texas Open odds, including two victories from Corey Conners.
Conners is among the favorites this week, according to the latest 2025 Valero Texas Open odds. Ludvig Aberg is the 12-1 favorite, followed by Tommy Fleetwood (14-1) and Conners (18-1) on the PGA odds board. Other notable names in the 2025 Valero Texas Open field include Patrick Cantlay (20-1), Jordan Speith (22-1) and defending champion Akshay Bhatia (28-1). Bhatia is +230 (risk $100 to win $230) to finish inside the top 10 and +450 to crack the top five. Before locking in your 2025 Valero Texas Open picks, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
SportsLine’s proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June 2020. In fact, the model is up nearly $9,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.
This same model has also nailed a whopping 13 majors entering the weekend, including the 2024 Masters- its third Masters in a row – and last year’s PGA Championship and U.S. Open. Anyone who has followed its sports betting picks could have seen massive returns on betting apps like FanDuel, DraftKings and Fanatics.
Now that the 2025 Valero Texas Open field is locked in, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.
2025 Valero Texas Open predictions
One major surprise the model is calling for at the 2025 Valero Texas Open: Ludvig Aberg, a PGA Tour champion and this week’s favorite, stumbles and barely cracks the top five. Aberg is off to a strong start in 2025, securing a victory at the Genesis Invitational and a T-5 showing at The Sentry. However, Aberg has finished T-22 or worse in his last two starts, which includes a missed cut at The Players Championship.
The 25-year-old has struggled with accuracy this season, ranking 99th in strokes gained: approach to green (-0.033) and 130th in driving accuracy (54.81%), which doesn’t bode well at a course like TPC San Antonio. Aberg has also been inconsistent with a putter in his hands, ranking 98th in strokes gained: putting (-0.002) and 161st in total putting (261.8). He’s not a strong pick to win it all, and there are far better values in the 2025 Valero Texas Open field. See who else to fade here.
Another surprise: Daniel Berger, a 40-1 longshot, makes a strong run at the title. He has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday.
Berger certainly has the game to finish near the top of the leaderboard this week. The 31-year-old is a seasoned veteran on the PGA Tour, having racked up four career victories. He’s also been trending in the right direction in recent weeks, finishing T-20 or better in four of his last five starts, which includes a T-2 showing at the WM Phoenix Open. Berger enters this week’s event ranked fifth in total driving (80), 10th in driving accuracy (67.35%) and 12th in strokes gained: total (1.334), making him a strong value pick for your 2025 Valero Texas Open bets. See who else to pick here.
How to make 2025 Valero Texas Open picks
The model is also targeting two other golfers with odds of 30-1 or longer who will make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model’s picks here.
Who will win the 2025 Valero Texas Open, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the 2025 Valero Texas Open odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed 13 golf majors, including the last three Masters and three majors in 2024.
2025 Valero Texas Open odds, favorites
Get full 2025 Valero Texas Open picks, best bets and predictions here.
Ludvig Aberg +1200
Tommy Fleetwood +1400
Corey Conners +1800
Patrick Cantlay +2000
Hideki Matsuyama +2000
Jordan Spieth +2200
Keegan Bradley +2500
Akshay Bhatia +2800
Denny Mccarthy +3000
Si Woo Kim +3500
Keith Mitchell +4000
Tony Finau +4000
Daniel Berger +4000
Tom Kim +4500
Sam Burns +5000
Samuel Stevens +5500
Bud Cauley +5500
Gary Woodland +5500
J.T. Poston +5500
Rico Hoey +6000
Matt Fitzpatrick +6000
Jacob Bridgeman +6000
Jake Knapp +6000
Maverick McNealy +6000
Harry Hall +6500
Charley Hoffman +7000
Ben Griffin +7000
Kurt Kitayama +7000
Andrew Novak +7000
Rickie Fowler +7500
Taylor Moore +7500
Lee Hodges +8000
Patrick Rodgers +8000
Alex Smalley +8000
Brian Harman +8000
Ryan Fox +8000
Justin Rose +8000
Chris Kirk +8000
Thorbjorn Olesen +8000
Ryan Gerard +8000
Matt Kuchar +9000
Seamus Power +9000
Niklas Norgaard +9000
Beau Hossler +9000
Victor Perez +10000
Isaiah Salinda +10000
Matt Wallace +10000
Tom Hoge +10000
Mac Meissner +11000
Sam Ryder +11000
Eric Cole +11000
Jesper Svensson +11000
Cameron Young +11000
Andrew Putnam +11000
Max Mcgreevy +12000
Aldrich Potgieter +12000
Michael Thorbjornsen +12000
Max Homa +12000
Doug Ghim +12000
Matthias Schmid +12000
Vince Whaley +15000
Benjamin James +15000
Sami Valimaki +15000
Joel Dahmen +15000
Ben Martin +15000
Alejandro Tosti +15000
Chan Kim +15000
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